Category: Masks

Covid-19: Are We Rounding the Curve?

It has been months now since we were attacked by the SARS-CoV-2 virus that one way or the other was brought to us from China. So let’s review a little bit of history before we figure out if we are indeed rounding the curve of this dreaded illness as it pertains to the U.S.

Rounding the Curve

Since the coronavirus was first officially acknowledged by Chinese officials on December 31, 2019 many, many questions remain unanswered about the origins of this virus that may never be answered. Such questions as to when it actually started in China and how it started in China are not likely to be answered by China even though they may have the answers. The disease probably began several weeks before December 31, 2019 in China, but was not acknowledged by the Chinese authorities. An article in the South China Morning Post, said that Chinese authorities had identified a case as early as early as November 17 of 2019 – weeks before they actually announced the emergence of this new virus.

The first confirmed case in the US was on January 20, 2020 in Washington state. Eleven days later on January 31, 2020, President Trump suspended entry of foreign nationals who had traveled to or resided in mainland China within the past 14 days in spite of many people labeling him as a xenophobe. Exceptions were made for returning U.S. citizens, immigrants lawfully in the United States, and immediate relatives of U.S. citizens. That move saved thousands of lives.

On March 11, 2020, President Trump issued a suspension of foreign nationals traveling to the U.S. from a majority of Europe.  He then extended this suspension to the United Kingdom and Ireland a few days later. That move again likely saved thousands of lives. Nonetheless in spite of these early precautions to prevent the virus from coming to the U.S., which parenthetically again caused the President to be falsely labelled as a xenophobe, the virus spread like wildfire. To date in many European countries the spread of the Sars-CoV-2 has been even more severe and catastrophic than it has been here in the U.S.

It is unclear why the virus spread so rapidly in this country and so many others in spite of precautions such as limiting international travel from countries with high rates of infection. There may be several reason for the disparities:

  • The virus was apparently carried by people traveling from Wuhan, China. So a lot of the dispersion of the virus initially depended on where these people were going whether it be the U.S., Europe or elsewhere.
  • The demographics of the countries receiving these travelers from China varied greatly. Some of these countries have an greater elderly population more susceptible to infection.
  • Some countries and also some locales within these countries have a greater population density and cultural characteristics which makes it easier for the virus to spread.
  • Some of these travelers coming from China and elsewhere may have been so called “super spreaders” of the virus.
  • The virus itself may have several strains some of which may be more lethal and contagious than others.

The bottom line in terms of infectivity and spread is that the situation was unpredictable and remains unpredictable. Keep in mind that data concerning the prevalence and death rate of the virus in this country and elsewhere is in a constant state of flux for a number of reasons including the following:

  • The fundamental data is often unreliable. For example, there have been many instances wherein deaths have been mislabeled as Covid when they are not conclusively due to Covid alone.
  • The testing may have been unreliable, inconclusive or inaccurate. It is now getting better.
  • Treatment protocols are evolving and were different in different parts of the country. As we learned more about the virus and how to treat it, survival and recovery have been drastically improved and treatment protocols have become more uniform.

So what is happening now? The U.S. currently with death rate of 13.7 per million as of October 28, 2020 is doing a lot better than many other countries across the world. Bear in mind that the reporting of cases and deaths is often inaccurate or misrepresented. Take a look at this recent article in the New York Post that tries to put some of this reporting in perspective. The CDC estimated that about 177,000 Americans died during the 2017-2018 flu season, from either the flu itself or by complications of pneumonia. That’s not to far off from the total death toll to date for the Covid -19 though this should not be taken to minimize the severity of Covid-19. Furthermore, two recent peer-reviewed studies also showed a sharp drop in mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the U.S. The drop was seen in all groups, including older patients and those with underlying conditions, suggesting that physicians in the U.S. are getting better at treating this disease.

Where do we go from here? First, consider that case numbers may be increasing, but death rate is definitely going down. There may be flare ups of the virus in various regions for many different reasons, and the fact that case numbers are increasing is also due in large part to increased testing. That’s only logical. The more you test, the more cases you find. Moreover, in a somewhat paradoxical way having more cases may not be as terrible it sounds. The more people who have the had the virus, particularly if they are not very ill or not ill at all as most people who have had the virus seem to be, then the greater the degree of “herd immunity.” With all due respect to Dr. Fauci who seems to have played down the concept of herd immunity, many epidemiologists would disagree with him in that regard. Bear in mind that we actually get herd immunity in two ways: by natural infection and by vaccination when it is available. The vaccines have yet to be proven though in all likelihood they will be very helpful in arresting this pandemic. Nonetheless, the herd immunity will likely be due to a combination of both of these factors not just vaccination alone. Second, consider that we have made great strides in treating this disease. We know a lot more about how to treat the cytokine storm which can be a devastating sequela of this infection leading to respiratory failure, other organ failure and death. We have learned more about when and how to ventilate patients better when needed. We have a variety of therapeutics, more are on the way, and we have several vaccines about to be launched. That is not to say that we will not see more cases and more deaths particularly among those who are more vulnerable, but to answer that question as to whether we are “rounding the curve” I believe we are, and the data seems to substantiate that.

So what’s next? We stay the course and continue to move forward by:

  • Maintaining social distancing and wearing masks when appropriate. I don’t think that should mean absolutely no socializing. Socializing is important for many reasons including mental health, but take reasonable precautions. Try to socialize in open areas with good ventilation and wear a mask when you can’t maintain social distancing until the virus is under better control. Take a look at some of my earlier Blogs about the proper use of masks for more information about the role of masks. It makes little sense to wear a mask when you are out in the open away from people such as walking on a beach, a country road or a park. I think doing so just promotes a sense of paranoia when we are already fearful.
  • Opening up our businesses and schools wherever possible. If we lock down the country for long, unreasonable periods of time we will no longer have a country, and we will not be able to address all the other medical, social, and business issues that we need to address as a country.
  • Continue our therapeutic research. We must develop new medicines and vaccines not just for Sar-CoV -2 virus but also for others that my be coming down the pike. This virus may be just the beginning, but a stream of therapeutics will have to be developed just like we did for bacterial infections decades ago. We know how to do this. It’s just a matter of focusing our research attention on this.

Most importantly we have to remember that we will see twists and turns with this disease. There will be flare ups that we will have to deal with, but that doesn’t mean we’re losing the battle. It just means that we have to keep on fighting until we get complete control which we will eventually and the sooner the better.

So to answer the question “are we rounding the curve” ? I think we, are but there will be more twists and turns before we see the straightaway.

Rounding the Curve

Knowledge Is Power, But Who Determines What Knowledge Is?

No one has a monopoly on knowledge, or better stated no on should have a monopoly on knowledge. A real education should teach us how to think for ourselves. It should teach us how to evaluate information and come to our own conclusions and not those that are fed to us by others as irrefutable truths. That is the hallmark of a true education. Yet today’s media, by and large, wants to determine for us what is “true” and what is not. It tells us what we have to believe and what we should disbelieve instead of allowing us to evaluate information on our own. Whether it is Facebook, Twitter, the so called “mainstream media,” or most newspapers and magazines, we the public are treated like children who must be spoon fed what others believe to be the truth because we are not capable of independent thought. There are some notable exceptions in the media to this dogmatic approach to knowledge, but they are few and far between. Instead, we are told what we are to believe, and God help us if we challenge the “authorities.” Our careers could be ruined. We could be ridiculed, ostracized or worse. We should be thankful for the independent thinkers in the history of mankind who had the fortitude to stand up against the rule of authority to speak their version of the truth. If not for such heros, we would still think that the earth was flat or that sun rotated around the earth.

Marble sculpture of Galileo Galilei contemplating the nature of the universe

Medical science, like any other science, can only advance when there is independent thought and when that independent thought challenges the conventional wisdom. Thought controllers like Twitter, Facebook, Google and other media giants exert enormous power on our thinking by limiting information, distorting information and literally persecuting any thoughts that they perceive as being erroneous or dangerous to the “group think” they espouse. They believe that we ordinary people are not capable of the independent evaluation of information. They determine who the “experts” are that we should listen to and obey. After all, they think we are not smart enough to make that determination. Instead of being platforms or formats for open discussion and thought, these media giants dare to presume that we cannot think for ourselves. They are convinced that we will be befuddled if we try to think independently or don’t follow their directives. Perhaps their reason for squashing our independent thought is more nefarious than that. Maybe it’s a method to be used to control us by taking away our power to think independently. As I said before knowledge is power, but even false knowledge can be powerful when it is presented as truth and efforts to refute it are thoroughly thwarted by the media. Furthermore, when that power is held by only a few people in the media, that power gets magnified. You are told what is right and what is wrong by the people in power, and who are you to question that? They are the only experts and their word is law. Sounds a little bit like fascism, doesn’t it?

I’ve Got My Own Mind

Let’s take a recent medical issue as a case in point that led me to this discussion. That is the recent censorship of Dr. Scott Atlas by Twitter because he dared to disagree with the conventional thought concerning masks espoused by the Dr. Fauci and others who are part of the medical/government complex. When I use the term “medical/government complex,” I am referring to medical and research personnel who have made working for the government their life long careers as well as the institutions that support them. Out of necessity these people and their institutions have learned more than a little about government politics and how to survive in that arena. That is not to say that these are bad people or unqualified for their positions. That is hardly the case. For example, Dr. Fauci is an eminent medical researcher with impeccable credentials who has worked for the government for many years and has had numerous scientists working under him. However, does that mean that Dr. Fauci has a complete monopoly on medical research and information? Is his the only truth that counts? Once again, I emphasize that is not how science works. Real science welcomes a diversity of opinion and discussion. Real science welcomes, or at least should welcome, an open and unbiased discussion of not only the facts but also the interpretation of those facts. So for a social commentary platform such as Twitter to ban the comments of someone like Dr. Atlas concerning the proper place for masks in this pandemic reeks of despotism. Dr. Atlas may disagree with Dr. Fauci and others concerning some aspects of mask use, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that Dr. Atlas is wrong, or that others who agree with him are also wrong. Dr. Atlas’ credentials are impeccable also, and his thoughts should be respected even if you may disagree with them.

It is important to realize that while we are embroiled on a day to day basis with all the aspects dealing with this pandemic such as modes of transmission, treatment of the disease itself, the social implications, the international implications and so forth, it will be years before we really have a good understanding of this illness, how it got here and how to best treat it. So in time to come it may well be that our “experts” were wrong on a number of points.

In the meantime, it’s also important to keep in mind the problem that I alluded to before which may actually turn out to be an even greater problem in the long run than the SARS-CoV- 2 virus itself at least as far as our national political health as a democracy is concerned. That is the overwhelming power of thought control that the media and the technocrats wield. We experience it every day now when Twitter or Facebook block a feed that in their infinite wisdom they deem incorrect, or when Google buries a source that it thinks is wrong or simply doesn’t like. This is real power because knowledge is power and when you control the “knowledge,” whether it is accurate or not, you control the real power.

It’s high time for our democratic republic to take a stand to do the right thing concerning the dissemination of information. Platforms like Twitter, Facebook and Goggle should be just that….platforms for dissemination of information without prejudice. One of the first steps should be to reform section 230 of the Communications Decency Act which in essence allows these tech media giants to act as censors picking and choosing to post only those things that they deem accurate while blocking all others. Another recent example of this is Twitter’s blocking of the New York Post article about Hunter and Joe Biden without adequate explanation. Too much power resides in the hands of big tech media giants like Twitter and Facebook. So much of the news we hear and see today comes through portals such as these, and he who controls the portals controls the “knowledge” whether that knowledge is accurate or not. With that control comes almost unlimited power. The danger of this situation is self evident and needs to be corrected as soon as possible.

Do Lockdowns Work for Covid-19?

Maybe the World Health Organization (WHO) is finally getting something right.

This week Dr. Nabarro of the World Health Organization stated that world leaders should “stop using lockdowns as your primary health control measure.” He went on to say that “the only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganize, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health care workers who are exhausted, but by and large, we’d rather not do it.” This is a sobering approach that comes into line with what many experts in this country and elsewhere have been espousing for months now. Yes, indeed, this coronavirus is one bad virus that got exported to us and the rest of the world from China, but sometimes the cure is worse than the disease. Again, this is not to say that Covid-19 cannot cause very serious illness and death particularly in the elderly and those with so called co-morbidities like pulmonary disease, heart disease, diabetes, obesity, immunocompromised states and other ailments. For these patients and their families the illness can be devastating. However, for the vast majority of people who get infected with this disease and get ill their symptoms are fortunately relatively mild.

Dr. Nabarro went on to point some of the negative consequences that lockdowns have caused across the world, including devastated tourism industries and increased hunger and poverty in parts of the world already suffering from these problems. In addition, in this country as well as in many others we are seeing increased rates of alcoholism, drug abuse, violence, depression, anxiety. Also, many people are delaying visits to see their doctors resulting in lost opportunities to practice preventive medicine. Our educational system is likewise being badly affected and along with that the health and welling being of our children. All this and the Stress related to the lockdowns may very well cause much more death in the long run than the lockdowns will save.

Photo by Nandhu Kumar on Pexels.com

So maybe it is time for some common sense to arrive on the scene to help make us whole again while our vaccines and therapeutics are being developed. Remember, these things are already here or on the way. We will eventually get through this. To quote Franklin Delano Roosevelt, “we have nothing to fear but fear itself.” That was in 1933 when the U.S. was going through an even more difficult period.

So what are some of the common sense things to do?

  • Use masks rationally. Take a look at my previous blog about mask use, To Mask or Not to Mask…That Is The Question. If you are out in the open air, at the beach, walking in the park or on a country road, riding a bike or doing anything else where you are not in close proximity to people, i.e., not likely to be within 6 feet or so of anyone, there is really no need to wear a mask. Doing so only instills a sense of fear or dread which is totally unnecessary. Unless you are using mask wearing as a political statement. If you are in a crowded elevator or conference room, then by all means use a mask. But remember that simple cloth masks do not really provide protection against airborne aerosolized virus. They may give you some protection against droplets but not airborne virus particles. Only N-95 masks or better stand a chance of capturing the virus particles if you are on the receiving end. If you are on the giving end, in other words, the person with the virus and you cough or sneeze into your face mask, droplets and tiny aerosolized virus particles will still be dispersed. Even the CDC, which has flip flopped back and forth about the use of masks, recently reported a study showing that 70% of the patients who came down with Covid-19 wore masks regularly. So this study really puts into question the utility of wearing face masks. Nonetheless, the practice of wearing a mask (really an N-95 mask or better) may provide some degree of prevention and perhaps emotional security as well if needed, but to wear a mask (cloth, surgical or N-95) in the great outdoors where you are not in close proximity to anyone, or in environments where social distancing and good ventilation can be easily maintained seems fruitless and perhaps a bit paranoid.
  • It goes without saying that frequent hand washing and use of hand sanitizers should continue, but this is true even if the virus that causes Covid-19 were to disappear.
  • Society has to open again. That means restaurants, gyms, businesses, social gatherings, schools and so forth all using social distancing as much as reasonably possible and masks when appropriate.
  • Protect the elderly and most vulnerable. That means people with underlying medical conditions that may tend to weaken the immune system. In such instances, these folks should be kept away from situations such as large gatherings where they may be more likely exposed unless precautions can be taken to limit their exposure.
  • Continue to exercise, take Zinc and Vitamin D which seem to have some antiviral activity.
  • In short time more diagnostic tests with greater reliability and shorter turnaround times will become more widely available. While this may not completely solve the problem of identifying people who are potential spreaders, it will go a long way in alerting us to who has the virus and may be communicable. So screening before attending large gatherings may become more common and alert us to potentially dangerous situations.
  • In short time we will also have vaccines and better medications. The calvary is on the way to save the day.
  • We have to open up the country again soon. If we don’t, we won’t have a country to open up, or we will have one that is desperate and on the verge of collapse. People have lost their jobs. Educating our children has become a major difficulty. Alcoholism, suicide, drug abuse are all on the rise. People are not following up with their routine doctor visits and diagnostic tests. Some businesses are at risk of failing or have already failed. As many have already said, if we use lockdown as a cure for this virus, then the cure may indeed be worse than the disease.

Some further comments about “lockdowns” and herd immunity.

Maybe Sweden did have the right idea. After months of being criticized by the “experts” for not locking down as vigorously as its other European neighbors and seeing an early spike in cases, it now seems to be doing a lot better than many other nations in Europe and elsewhere. This may be due to the fact that the Swedes as a nation are developing a greater degree of herd immunity more quickly than other countries simply because they did not lockdown to the same degree as other countries which does seem to make some sense. Herd immunity, immunity related to widespread vaccination, better therapeutics and perhaps weakening of the virus itself will hopefully bring an end to this pandemic. However, we should also keep in mind that for a variety of reasons we may be seeing more of these viruses as time goes on. Therefor, from a scientific point of view we need to do more research on therapeutics and rapid vaccine development so as to be better prepared for the next battle.

The Political Weaponization of the Sars-CoV-2 Virus

First, let’s take a closer look at the biological origins of the this virus and consider whether this virus may have been biologically weaponized. Then we can take a look at how the spread of this virus in the U.S. appears to have been politically weaponized.

Photo by CDC on Pexels.com

There are some who believe that the Sars-CoV-2 virus was biologically weaponized by China and allowed to spread across the world intentionally by that country. There are many reasons to believe why this might be true. For example, if this virus was indeed a naturally occurring virus that simply escaped from the laboratory unenhanced in Wuhan, China, than why is it that the area where these bats thrive did not become a major epicenter of the epidemic? It would stand to reason that the locale where the virus originated, presumably in bat caves in the Yunnan province of China, would be an epicenter for the Covid-19 disease. Yet, that was not the case leading to the speculation that something happened in that laboratory in Wuhan to make this virus much more communicable and dangerous. Did this mutation happen spontaneously or was it genetically engineered? Some virologists would say that it would be highly unlikely that such a spontaneous mutation would occur that rapidly. Other virologists have said that genetic engineering is a definite possibility.

The genomic sequence of the virus that caused the pandemic, eventually named SARS-CoV-2, was 96 percent identical to that of a coronavirus the researchers had identified in horseshoe bats in Yunnan. However, this means that there is a 4 % difference between viral genome of the coronavirus found in the bats in the Yunnan province and the genome of the pandemic virus, the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which presumably somehow escaped from the Wuhan Virology Institute. Could it be that this 4% difference made the virus more pathogenic for humans? Could it be that this virus from the bat caves of Yunnan spontaneously mutated to a more pathogenic strain once it got to Wuhan and then subsequently somehow escaped the laboratory ? Or, was it genetically manipulated in the laboratory to become more pathogenic and then somehow managed to get released from the Wuhan Virology Institute ultimately leading to worldwide pandemic?

Genetically Manipulated?

We may never really know the answer to these questions, but what we do know is that having arrived in this U.S. this virus has wrought havoc and has now become politically weaponized. The political weaponization of the Sars-CoV-2 virus in this country started early on in the pandemic that began to swept world in the winter of 2020. Let me explain what I mean by this.

The left leaning elements of the political spectrum in this country are now using the pandemic as a political tool to instill fear in the population in order to achieve a political agenda. The plan is simple. Establish fear. Create panic. Place blame where it does not belong. Then use these measures to enforce obedience. Do what we tell you to do or the consequences will be dire. Do what we tell you to do. Not what we do. The agenda is also simple….to create a populace that does not question what it is being told. Just obey and you will be fine. Wear a mask whether you need to or not because we tell you to even though wearing a mask often makes no sense. To paraphrase Lenin, if you say something loud enough and long enough, it will eventually become truth. The concept is a simple one that works best when the element of fear is added.

So next let’s look at look at some of the truth about the pandemic in this country at this point in time so we can dispel some of the fear, hasten a return to normalcy and push back against those who would use this fear to control our lives.

This Sars CoV-2 virus is indeed a nasty bug no matter how it got here to our shores or how it evolved (see above), but it is definitely on the decline at this point. Nationally, according to a recent report from the CDC the number of new cases and deaths related to the disease are in decline. New vaccines will be available in the fall or early winter, and new therapeutics are being developed while old ones like hydroxychloroquine are being re-evaluated. Remdesiver which has been touted as a breakthrough drug in the treatment of Covid-19 may really not be the game changer that it was once touted as being. I refer you to an article in JAMA this past August which stated that “among patients with moderate COVID-19, those randomized to a 10-day course of remdesivir did not have a statistically significant difference in clinical status compared with standard care at 11 days after initiation of treatment.” It went on to state that “patients randomized to a 5-day course of remdesivir had a statistically significant difference in clinical status compared with standard care, but the difference was of uncertain clinical importance.” Other new anti-viral agents are being developed which will likely be better than remdesivir, and older ones like hydroxychloroquine are being looked at again. A recent study done at the Henry Ford Hospital in Detroit showed that hydroxychloroquine cut the death rate significantly although this well done study seems to have been buried and got little attention maybe because it was in Big Pharma’s best interest to do so.

So why do things seem to be turning around if we haven’t yet developed a cure or a vaccine? Well, there are probably several reasons. While we may not yet have the wonderful cure we are all looking for, we seem to be getting better at treating this thing. Also, although many of our medical experts seem to play down the idea of “herd immunity,” we may be seeing some of this contributing to the apparent downturn in the virus. Other experts do indeed feel that this is the case and if so then the vaccine will will further enhance this “herd immunity.” The virus may also be mutating to a weaker strain that is less pathogenic and less communicable. After All the Spanish Flu of 1918 and 1919 disappeared for reasons that we don’t completely understand but probably had a lot to due with mutation and herd immunity.

But while this is all happening, it seems that the political left is still looking to divide the country by casting blame where really none is due. The left is using this pandemic as a political tool to gain power. Instead of pulling the country together it harps on any issue that might be played to political advantage. It’s no longer a matter of what is good for the county. It’s now a matter of what is necessary to win an election and regain power. Create doubt, uncertainty, dissention and whatever else is necessary to to divide and conquer. Weaponize the Sars-CoV-1 virus from a political standpoint to achieve that end no matter what the cost to the country instead of putting political differences aside and doing what is best for the country. Whatever happened to patriotism, putting political differences aside and really doing what is good for the country? I guess it disappeared when the left decided that the electoral process in this country, which worked for over 200 years, was no longer legitimate and that Donald Trump was not really the president. Truth is no longer the truth. It seem that according to the left, truth is whatever you want it to be as long as you can yell the loudest.

Photo by Karolina Grabowska on Pexels.com

To Mask, or Not to Mask, That Is Indeed the Question….Time to Look at This Again

To paraphrase Hamlet’s soliloquy, that is indeed the question we now face during this phase of the coronavirus pandemic. There are those amongst us that would have us all believe that the universal wearing of a face mask will save thousands of lives. However, instead of looking at this as the political statement it seems to have become, let’s take a look at the reasoning beyond this to see if a universal mask mandate really makes sense. Let’s look at some of the facts and not the political fodder that mask wearing has become for some in the media and politics.

First, let’s take a look at viral particle size and mask filtration characteristics. The SARS-CoV-2 viral particle known as a “virion” is about 120 microns in diameter although it probably varies from 60 to 140 microns. Cloth facial masks which most people are wearing are too porous to either catch the virus on exhalation if you have the virus or prevent you from inhaling it if you don’t.

Second, only a mask that has filtration characteristics of an N-95 mask or better has a chance of stopping such small particles. The “N” in N-95 stands for “Not Oil Resistant” and the “95” means that it will filter out 95% of particles 0.3 microns or greater in size. Without getting into the murky details of particle filtration science, suffice it to say that the SARS-CoV-2 virus itself may be smaller than the actual N-95 particle filter size, but the virus usually travels attached to larger particles or conglomerates of viral particles that are consistently snared by the filter. In addition, though the actual individual viral particle size may be smaller than the filtration or pore size of the N-95 material, there are other mechanisms that promote capture of the viral particle by an N-95 mask. For example, electrostatic attraction may promote attachment of the virus to the fibers of the mask and the erratic movement of the viral particles may also help to ensnare these viral particles in the filter material. In any event, the N-95 mask is pretty good in filtering out the virus if the filtration material is intact and if worn properly.

Third, a cloth mask may retain droplets of expiratory secretions, but these droplets are not going to be airborne for prolonged periods like an aerosol would be likely to do. So if a person is infected, a cloth mask may be of some benefit in limiting spread of the virus due to droplet transmission in a close environment. For example, if a carrier of the virus happens to sneeze or cough up droplets, then these infected droplets may be retained in the cloth fibers of the mask thereby limiting the spread of the virus to others. However, a cloth mask will not stop the transmission of aerosolized viral particles that may also be launched by a cough or a sneeze. Likewise, on the receiving end, a non-infected person wearing a cloth mask might be somewhat protected from the large droplets launched by a infected person with a cough or a sneeze, but a cloth mask will not protect him from aerosolized viral particles which will pass through a cloth mask. Bear in mind that when an infected person coughs or sneezes there is both droplet and aerosolized transmission of the virus.

Fourth, many people now seem to feel it is necessary to wear a mask, cloth or otherwise, when they are in the wide open spaces walking, running, or riding a bike with no one within yards or miles of themselves. This may make them feel more comfortable and protected, or it may make them feel that they are better neighbors because they are protecting others even if they themselves are asymptomatic. However, the reality of such protection is very questionable because the need for a mask of any kind under these circumstances is questionable. My personal feeling is that using a mask of any kind in this setting, and I emphasize “in this setting” is unnecessary and tends to foster paranoia, or at least unnecessary worry, at a time when we should be trying to bring things back to normal.

So my suggestions regarding mask wearing are:

  • Wear an N-95 type mask if you are in an enclosed area where you cannot maintain a good degree of social distancing. This affords the best degree of protection both for yourself and others.
  • If you don’t have an N-95 mask and can’t maintain social distancing, than by all means use a cloth mask at the very least. It will provide some limited degree of protection.
  • If you are in the wide open spaces for a walk, jog or a bike ride, then wearing a mask of any kind seems unnecessary. It’s time to start bringing things back to normal.

A Tale of Two Illnesses

We in the U.S. are currently battling two major illnesses that may change the social fabric, customs and morality of our country for years to come if not forever.  Both are very different but certainly intertwined.  Together they will test our strength as a nation.

The first of these is Covid-19. While as a whole the country seems to be doing better handling this pandemic, we are by no means out of danger.  More illness and death is yet to come.  However, keep in mind that as time goes on and more and more people are exposed to the virus more herd immunity will occur, and that is really what we need in order to overcome the threat of pandemic. We achieve that “herd immunity” in two ways (see The Dilemma of Immunity).  One way is by immunization.  The second way is through naturally occuring infection.  This means that as more and more people are exposed to the virus naturally in the environment and recover, then fewer and fewer people are left susceptible to the virus.  The corollary to this concept is that people who have had the disease and recovered would be unlikely to spread the disease to the remaining others who might still be susceptible.  Hence there will be less communicability as time goes on.  This may seem obvious, but it is an important concept and probably as important as immunization if not more so.  However, there are some caveats to be considered here.  For example, we are assuming with good reason that having had the infection confirms immunity. While this is likely it has not yet been completely validated at this point. Neither has it been validated that the immunity will be lifelong..  Another issue which remains open yet is whether the virus will mutate to such a degree that prior immunity will no longer be effective as often happens with the influenza virus for which new vaccines are required on a yearly basis.  Of course the alternative is also possible; namely,  that the virus will mutate and become in and of itself less infectious as time goes on.  We will likely have a vaccine (or vaccines) for Covid-19 early next year and newer antiviral medications will likely be developed in the months ahead as well.  Also, very importantly,  other medications to treat the lethal inflammatory sequelae of the virus will soon be developed thanks to our robust pharmaceutical industry.  All of this should save lives. However, other new viruses and infectious agents will also likely come to our shores in time to come, and we will need to be better prepared for this future possibility.  Please see my previous blog about what we have learned from this pandemic (seeWhat Have We Learned From Covid-19).  In the meantime our experience with Covid-19 has had dramatic effects on how we live our lives and conduct our business.  There is no more hand shaking. Social gatherings are limited.  People walk around in fear of getting a dreaded illness, which by the way, has a mortality rate far lower that initially projected.  People are wearing face masks in situations where there is no rational reason to do so (see Pandemic). Uncertainty about our economic future and security is causing fear and panic in the population leading to unreasonable doubts about our survival as a nation.  We will survive the Covid-19 pandemic and other infectious disease threats that may follow. Not only will we survive these threats, but will will do well once we learn how to cope with them.

The greater threat to our health, both individually and as a nation, is the emergence of various anarchist groups threatening to overthrow our government and the rule of law without which no society can survive.  The widespread violence and destruction that we are now seeing and the inability of local governments, particularly those in left wing democratic cities, to control this is a greater risk to the health and wellbeing of the nation as a whole compared to any viral pandemic. We can face pandemics together as one nation and do what is necessary to overcome them if we put petty politics aside and use good judgement.  Instead, what we see happening is our politicians using this pandemic as a political tool to destroy the opposition putting power before country.  Beyond this we see some of our elected leaders, principally socialist democrats, on a state and local basis permitting, condoning and even encouraging rioting and destruction.  There is absolutely no doubt that we have social problems that need to be urgently addressed, but destroying the country is not the healthy way to do so.  The wanton destruction of private property, the desecration of  monuments, the attacks on law abiding citizens does nothing but create more fear and hostility at a time when what we need is unity.  The health of the nation and its citizens depends on it.  To destroy our government and our institutions, as the leftists and particularly the anarchists want to do, is like seeing a sick patient in the hospital who has an excellent chance of recovery and saying he has to be euthanized because he is not worth saving.

Pandemic

More on masks….and the Confusion Surrounding Their Use

So much has already been written and discussed about the appropriate use of masks during this pandemic, but it still remains a confusing topic especially for those who are not front line care givers, first responders or in high risk occupations.  For those of us who are, the need to wear all the appropriate personal protective equipment (PPE) including the N-95 face masks and the like is quite clear.  The risk of exposure for such individuals is great, and therefore so is the the need for protection.  However, for those who are not on the frontline wearing a mask may simply be an expression of  an unreasonable fear or perhaps confusion about what should be done to protect oneself and others in a low risk environment.  A lot of this fear and confusion may be perpetuated by governmental authorities who feel that they need to control in every aspect what we do as individuals because ordinary people are not really capable of making sound judgements regarding their own care.  Dr. Fauci says he wears a mask because he wants to protect himself as well as others and also because he wants to make a mask a “symbol” for people to see that it’s “the kind of thing you should be doing.” However, do we really need a symbol in place of real information about what we should be doing and why so we can make our own sensible judgements?  Or, is the promotion of this “symbol” just something to help enforce compliance with a lot of rules and regulations that at this point in the pandemic are of questionable value?  Countless times I have seen people riding alone in cars with face masks on, riding bicycles on country roads or walking along deserted streets with face masks on.  Just recently I saw a woman leave her suburban house to walk down her driveway to her mailbox with mask and gloves on to pick up her mail with no one within a hundred feet of her.  I don’t think the use of a mask in situations such as these reflects symbolism or appropriate protectiveness to any degree.  Instead, I think this type of behavior reflects a paranoia engendered by the media and to some extent by governmental bodies which are confused, but none the less determined, to control our activities by telling us what we need to do even though there may be little or no proof that what they are telling us is indeed correct.  So having said all of this let’s take another realistic look at how and when masks might be used in the daily lives of ordinary people and not those of first responders, front line care givers or workers in high risk occupations.  To do so let’s also take a realistic look at how this virus spreads realizing that there is still a lot that needs to be learned. 

First, the virus can indeed spread between people interacting in close proximity.  For example, speaking, coughing, or sneezing can spread the virus from an infected individual to an uninfected individual.  However, the key words here are “close proximity.”  Usually that means within 6 to 9 feet of each other.  In light of this evidence, CDC recommends wearing cloth face coverings in public settings where other social distancing measures are difficult to maintain (for example, grocery stores, pharmacies, subways, buses, public buildings, etc. ) especially in areas where there is significant evidence of disease spread.  However, keep in mind that simple cloth masks will only help prevent large droplet transmission and not small airborne viral particle transmission.  So simple cloth masks may help somewhat in certain circumstances where close proximity is an unavoidable issue because large droplets will be retained by the cloth mask.  However, small airborne viral particles will not be retained by a cloth mask, nor will a cloth mask filter out such particles and prevent them from being inhaled by someone else.  So for the person with the virus who is coughing the cloth mask will help stop the droplets containing the virus from settling on another person, but it will not stop the tiny airborne viral particles themselves from being dispersed to others.  For the person who is not infected and wearing a cloth mask, the cloth mask will only help prevent the large droplets from reaching that individual but not the tiny airborne viral particles themselves. To help prevent airborne viral particle transmission which would be necessary in situations of close contact, an N-95 mask or better would be needed. Therefor, it makes very little sense to wear a mask of any kind when you are out and about away from people like when going for a walk or bike ride on country road, driving in your car alone, walking along a beach, etc.

 

More on Other Modes of Transmission

The coronavirus can live for hours to days on surfaces like countertops and doorknobs, but how long it survives depends on a number of factors like the texture of the surface, heat and humidity.  There is also evidence for fecal oral transmission.  A lot still has to be learned about how long this virus can survive outside the body, but as of now it seems that you are much more likely to catch it directly from another person than from surfaces.

Finally a Word About Mutation of the Virus

 

Viruses can mutate and that can cause a problem in terms of vaccines and treatments. However, mutation is not always a bad thing. Sometimes mutations can lead to a weakening of the virus so that it eventually dies out. The Sars C0V -2 virus seems to have a slower mutation rate than the influenza virus so that may be a good thing for vaccine development.